House of El: Europe's €860bn Defence Plan Shuts Out US Suppliers
In a video analysis on the House of El (@HouseofEl) YouTube channel, the host examined Europe's recently announced €860 billion defence plan, emphasising its clear move away from American weapons suppliers towards European-made equipment.
The plan, described as the largest European defence spending increase since the Cold War, includes binding requirements: by 2027, 40% of military purchases must involve joint European procurement, rising to 55% from European or Ukrainian manufacturers by 2030. The SAFE loan mechanism, comprising €150 billion, favours European producers, effectively excluding US defence contractors unless Washington negotiates separate agreements with Brussels.
Data presented in the analysis shows this shift is already happening. Germany's latest defence plan involves 154 major purchases through 2026, with only about 8% going to US companies. This starkly contrasts recent trends where Europe was America's fastest-growing defence export market, with foreign military sales reaching $18.7 billion in fiscal 2024.
The analysis highlighted the political irony: the US, which has long urged European allies to increase defence spending, now observes those funds being directed towards building European industrial capacity rather than purchasing American equipment. The US State Department and Pentagon have criticised the plan as protectionist, warning it may undermine NATO interoperability and could prompt reviews of American market access for European firms under the Buy American Act.
Nevertheless, the video identified contradictions in Europe's pursuit of greater autonomy. While European defence technology start-ups raised nearly $9 billion in 2025, over a third of that capital came from North American investors. European pension funds remain hesitant to invest directly in weapons manufacturing due to ethical restrictions, creating ongoing financial reliance on US markets.
The analysis concluded that Europe will probably continue buying certain high-end American systems, such as the F-35, while developing domestic capabilities elsewhere. The €860 billion surge is organised to establish lasting European industrial infrastructure, reducing US market share over the next decade—a direct outcome of Washington's own advocacy for European self-sufficiency.
Source: Europe's €860 Billion Defense Plan BANS USA - EU-Made ONLY by 2030 (Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnzZARoHJ0w)