Ex-CIA Analyst Explains Why Trump Cancelled Planned Iran Military Strikes

In an interview on the Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) platform, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson provided a detailed explanation of why a planned U.S. military strike on Iran was reportedly called off in early January. According to his analysis, the decision was based on a pivotal shift in the intelligence assessment provided to President Donald Trump.

Johnson argues that the initial U.S. strategy was predicated on the belief that decisive military action could catalyse a popular uprising and lead to the collapse of the Iranian government. This assessment changed dramatically on January 8-9, when the Iranian government successfully shut down the internet and disabled Starlink terminals used to coordinate protests. This action not only quelled the unrest but was followed by large-scale public demonstrations in support of the government, all organised without online tools. Faced with this evidence of the regime's resilience and control, intelligence briefers reportedly told Trump they could no longer guarantee that a military strike would be decisive or trigger the desired regime change.

The analysis highlights that the geopolitical context has also shifted significantly since previous confrontations. Johnson states that Iran now has the "full backing" of Russia and China, including the provision of air defence systems and technical support, making any military action far more complex and risky. Furthermore, the explicit Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—a transit point for nearly half of the world's seaborne oil—raised the spectre of immediate global economic shock.

Ultimately, the former officer frames the cancelled strike as a tactical recalculation, driven by a reassessment of Iran's internal stability and the heightened costs of a conflict that now involves other major powers.

Source: Ex-CIA Larry Johnson EXPLAINS Why Trump CANCELLED Iran Strikes (Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDj3HSqkmgo)