China Opposes US-Led Regime Change in Iran, Citing Stability and Belt and Road Initiative Stakes

In an interview with IranTalks (@Irantalks.podcast), analyst Carl Zha outlined three core reasons China opposes U.S.-led regime change efforts in Iran. The discussion frames Iran as a "linchpin" for Chinese strategic interests. First, China prioritises regional stability and opposes the "Balkanization" of sovereign states, viewing internal strife as a threat to its own domestic and international security principles.

Second, China's substantial economic interests are at stake. China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports, making energy security a direct concern. A fragmented or destabilised Iran would jeopardise this crucial supply and threaten the viability of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), for which Iran is a key geographic corridor connecting China to West Asia and Europe.

Finally, Zha argues that China is prepared for confrontation with the U.S. over the issue. He suggests that potential U.S. tariffs on countries trading with Iran would be seen as a direct challenge to China, which could retaliate using economic leverage such as rare earth elements. The analysis concludes that China's preference for a stable, unified Iran and its willingness to defend its interests make it a determined obstacle to external efforts to change Iran's government.

Source: 3 Reasons China Will NEVER Let the U.S. Destroy Iran | Carl Zha (Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipN95J1hkn4)