In a recent interview, Douglas Macgregor, a retired US Army colonel and former adviser to the US defence secretary, warned that renewed US–Iran conflict escalation could carry risks far beyond the Middle East, potentially triggering a wider international confrontation.
Macgregor pointed to increased US military deployments in the Middle East, including air assets, refuelling tankers and naval movements, as signals that US strikes on Iran remain a possibility. He argued that an airpower-only campaign would be unlikely to deliver decisive results and could instead provoke retaliation against US bases and allies in the region.
The interview also highlighted the strategic role of Israel and the limits of Israel–US coordination on Iran, with Macgregor cautioning that Iran’s missile capabilities and air defences remain intact. He raised concerns that any escalation could draw in external powers, particularly Russia and China backing Iran through military technology, intelligence support or economic measures, even if they avoid direct confrontation with the United States.
Energy security featured prominently in his assessment. Macgregor warned that instability around the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes—through which a significant share of global oil exports passes—could disrupt supplies to Asia, including China, and push up global energy prices. He linked these risks to sanctions, tariffs and broader BRICS geopolitical tensions.
On nuclear risks, Macgregor said the danger of miscalculation was growing, especially if regional fighting intensified. He referenced debates around nuclear escalation scenarios, the expiry of the New START treaty, and proposals for a no first use commitment as ways to reduce the chance of catastrophic escalation.
The discussion, hosted by Glenn Diesen, framed the current moment as one of high uncertainty, with military posturing, alliance dynamics and energy chokepoints combining to raise the stakes of any decision involving Iran and the United States.
